Scenarios for Vietnam’s future economy
The National Economics College of Hanoi National University and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation of Vietnam released on May 29 the Vietnam Economic Annual Report 2019 with the theme “On the threshold of a digital economy.”
According to the report, there will be two scenarios for Vietnam’s economy in 2019.
Under the first scenario, Vietnam’s economy will grow 6.56% and inflation will be at 4.21% while the second scenario forecasts Vietnam’s economy will grow by 6.81% with inflation at 4.79%.
Experts say the second scenario is more likely thanks to growth factors from 2018, and the Vietnamese government efforts to increase economic competitiveness and productivity, together with Vietnamese enterprises’ increasing participation in international trade.
The annual report also mentions 4 scenarios concerning Vietnam’s digital economy by 2045. Accordingly, digital transformation will help the economy grow additional 1% annually, with digital exports contributing 0.45% to annual economic growth, and digital consumption contributing 0.43% of the growth while the traditional digital scenario is at 0.38%.
Nguyen Duc Thanh, director of the Vietnam Economic Policy Research Center said “We hope the 4 scenarios will help Vietnam escape from the traditional scenarios. With the current conditions of Vietnam, we believe that Vietnam will gradually move to digital exports and digital consumption, two processes that will advance the digital revolution and help Vietnam further integrate into the digital society.”